Season 9 preview, part 1: The Rotation

Currently, there are seven pitchers (that we know of) in spring camp who are fighting for 5 coveted rotation spots. In part one of my in-depth preview of the upcoming season, I'll take a look at all seven of them and give my prediction as to who will be our main 5 this year.

Vince Baker - An absolute lock for the rotation, and it should come as no surprise. Probably prezuiwf's best free agent signing since taking over the reigns as GM, Baker posted a stellar 2.84 ERA for us last year, easily making him our best starter. Our offense plus his lack of excellent stamina only earned him a paltry 10 wins last year, but what it really comes down to is his ability to keep us in the game, and with an improved offense this year (which I'll talk about in a future post) he should see his win totals skyrocket. At age 36, he really doesn't appear to have missed a step, and at only $7 million this year, he's one of the best bargains in the league as well.

Don Wang - Our other star in the rotation last year will be back this season at an even better bargain price-- $4.4 million, which will be his salary through season 11. So why do I only give him an 80% chance of being a regular starter this year? One word: stamina. At only 33, while Wang can still throw the ball as well as anyone, he can't go as deep into games as we need him to. He only averaged about 4 and 2/3 innings per start last year (not even enough, on average, to qualify him for a win) and he isn't getting any younger. This isn't necessarily a bad thing-- our bullpen was terrible last year, and it would be great to have a long reliever as good as Don Wang who can also spot start from time to time. But it would be nice to see him in the rotation, and he will probably make at least a few starts to begin the year until our next pitcher on the list is called up...

Cyrus Torres - The golden boy of the season 6 draft showed last year just how ready he was, posting a 1.86 ERA in 212.1 innings in AA and AAA with an 18-3 record and a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 194:56. He tossed a no-hitter in his first game in AAA and averaged 7 and 1/3 innings per start. In other words: the kid's a phenom, and it's no surprise that whenever a we're having trade talks, his name constantly comes up. Prezuiwf has diligently held onto him though, and this year he looks poised to immediately enter the rotation as a total stud. Prezuiwf has already stated that he will hold him back for a few starts to give him more seasoning (read: delay his arbitration clock), but once Torres is unleashed on the league, look for him to skillfully compete for Rookie of the Year honors, if not the Cy Young award. As I said, he'll be held out for the beginning of the year, but if he starts the day he comes up, look for him to make his ML debut at home against last year's top power hitting squad, the Atlanta Cherokee.

Alberto Felix - If Vince Baker is prezuiwf's best acquisition since he started in Syracuse, Alberto Felix may be his worst. Last year, we paid the then-37-year old $8.5 million to give us a 5.93 ERA and a .304 opponent batting average. Ouch. Opponents OPSed well over .800 against him and he seemed to get shelled every game. While it's hard to defend this signing, there is a silver lining: Felix actually turned in 12 quality starts last year, suggesting that he may still have something left in the tank. Make no mistake, though-- Felix is a whipping boy for other teams, and unfortunately, prezuiwf insists on keeping him in the rotation, stating that Felix "still has the potential to be an ace in the hole" for Syracuse. Looks like someone's been drinking the Kool-Aid. In any case, it's easy to give prezuiwf a pass due to his other, more positive moves over the past few years, but this signing is just terrible. Alberto, I hope you prove me wrong this year, but I won't hold my breath.

Ivan Dotel - Definitely a solid point in our rotation. Don't look at just the stats-- it's true he finished the season with a 4.50 ERA, but that was due to a bunch of garbage starts in which he gave up tons of runs at the end of the year. His ERA was under 4 for most of the season, and I hope we see that same quality again this year. He led the team in quality starts last year with 16 and sports a wicked fastball that helps him get out of jams. The jury's still out on whether it was worthwhile to deal Max Guillen for him, but so far he has been very solid and could end up being the difference between a playoff berth and a trip to the living room sofa this October.

Tim Juden - Prezuiwf went into the winter meetings announcing that he wanted to walk out with a new starting pitcher, and just when it looked like that was merely a dream, he managed to land Juden for a few minor leaguers. Juden hasn't posted an ERA above 4.25 since season 2, though it's slightly worrying that he has played in an extreme pitcher's park for the past 2.5 seasons. Still, Juden's got a solid track record with 3 plus pitches and should fill out the rotation nicely. His biggest selling point for us is his ability to go deep into games-- he averaged over 6 innings per start last year and should give our bullpen sporadic breathers after working hard for guys like Wang and Baker. Juden is in the last year of his contract and both sides have said that they will wait until after the season before making a decision about extending his deal; Juden has been more overt, however, about his desire to test free agency rather than resigning. Still, having a pitcher of his caliber this year shows that prezuiwf is looking to win this season and is giving our minor league guys (namely Roger Murray) more time to develop.

Jeffrey Rivera - Last but not least, we come to a guy who has been lauded by scouts for his fastball and his control, and equally derided by critics about his attitude and his decision to infamously spurn LSU's verbally agreed upon scholarship offer to play in the pros. Rivera's talent cannot be denied, and he posted a 3.42 ERA in a full season of AAA last year. Many would count this as evidence that the 22 year old is ready for prime time, but prezuiwf has stated that he thinks it's possible that Rivera will need more time to develop his changeup command and work on getting more lefties out. Scouts also say that his minor league strikeout totals are a mirage and he may not be able to properly adjust to the decreased K rates he'll have to endure at the ML level. It's possible that Rivera will start the season in the bullpen, and then work his way into the starting five after he's proven himself (or next season if/when Juden leaves).

People who will definitely NOT be in the rotation (barring an injury epidemic):

Ben Wilson - He had a 6.19 ERA in 68.1 innings of low-pressure mopup situations last year. The guy's a bust. No thanks.

Felipe Cairo - Used to be an All-Star SP, but prezuiwf likes him out of the bullpen. He's getting too old to handle the stress of a 33-start grind. Cairo has stated that he feels more comfortable as a reliever at this stage of his career.

Dwayne Stewart - Served us well in last year's cup of coffee, posting a 2.25 ERA in 4 innings of work. Unfortunately, despite his wicked sinker, injuries may be the only thing that will let Stewart sniff the majors again.

Roger Murray - As I said above, Murray will pitch in the minors all year, even if our ML starters start to go down with injuries. He may get a September call-up, but as prezuiwf commented, "That's for him to decide. We'll see what he can do in AAA this year." He hasn't been stellar in the minors so far but has performed solidly.

That's all for now, stay tuned for my next post when I'll tackle this season's starting lineup (or lineups) and identify our offensive strengths and weaknesses.