Season 9 preview, part 3: The Bullpen

Alright guys, here's the third and final part of my in-depth preview for your Season 9 Syracuse Snow Pirates. This time I'll be examining easily the worst part of the team last year, the bullpen. Will it be improved? Will it continue to blow games left and right? And who will actually be in the 'pen this year? Let's examine some possibilities:

Hal Davenport - For my money, this is the guy who should be the closer this year. Yeah I know Harry Paz did a decent job last year, and yes I know Bill Walker was brilliant as a September callup (and I will discuss both of them below), but Davenport was the best reliever on the team for the duration of Season 8, posting a 3.43 ERA as a middle reliever and setup man. He had a mediocre 4.69 ERA the year prior, but at age 27 I believe he finally came into his own and become the pitcher we all hoped he'd be when we dealt Albert Fanrsworth for him back in Season 6. Scouts say his stuff is actually still improving, so as far as I'm concerned, the closer role should be Davenport's to lose in Season 9.

Harry Paz - Of course, while Davenport SHOULD be closing, in all likelihood Paz will retain the role he performed with such mediocrity last year. Don't get me wrong; Paz is a good pitcher, posting a 4.03 ERA last year as a 24-year old rookie. He's got four good pitches including a nasty sinker, and he had more than a K per inning last year. By all accounts, he very well could turn the corner this year and pitch phenominally. My concern is this: why take the chance? What if he turns out to be a total bust? Prezuiwf clearly thought very highly of him when he traded both Ronnie Golub (a prodigious power-hitting catcher) and Peter Mullin (our former LF of the future) for Paz and Danny Milligan. But Paz has yet to display his supposed skills at the ML level, and if it weren't for the enormous hype surrounding Milligan, I think many people would begin to suspect we got swindled. This will be a big year in determining whether Paz is worth his weight at the ML level. I would make him a setup man until he shows he's capable of posting a sub-4 ERA for at least half a year, but he might get thrown back into the closer role to sink or swim this season.

Bill Walker - Walker is the oft-forgotten piece of the deal that sent mediocre third baseman Boomer Lidle to the Riverdogs for future rotation hopeful Jeffrey Rivera. Walker was also shipped to us in that trade, and last year at age 23, he put up a 1.93 ERA in a tantalizing 9.1 innings of work at the ML level in September. Time will tell if Walker is really as good as he looks, but scouting reports have been calling him a stud, with 5 plus pitches including a challenging fastball and a very above average curveball. He's not known for being a strikeout artist (except for last year in AAA), but he finds ways to get guys out and could be our secret weapon as a rookie this season. Walker likely won't have a sub-2 ERA, and his fragility will likely limit him to under 35 innings this season, but he kills righties and could make our other relievers better by helping them out of jams from time to time. This guy could have a very bright future in Syracuse if he's as good as he's looked so far.

Felipe Cairo - Cairo may take a step backward this year as he turned 39 a few weeks ago and has clearly lost a bit of zip over the past two seasons. If he is as good as last year, however, he will be a solid option in the 'pen, giving us around 70 innings with a sub-4 ERA. If he can regain his Cy Young-caliber form, that's gravy. But if he posts a 4.3 ERA this year, I'll be happy. At $3 million, he's not costing us an arm and a leg for what we can expect to get, though I wouldn't be surprised to see Cairo retire after this season, thus not making him much of a long-term option.

Santiago Mercado - If this guy ever took those stupid sunglasses off, maybe he'd be able to see the writing on the wall-- a 5.95 ERA in his first two major league seasons is not enough to keep him on this team, and this season will likely be his last chance to prove himself. Opponents hit an embarrassing .300 off of him last year in a season in which Mercado was supposed to emerge as a frontline reliever. The secret may be in his lack of versatility: he only has two pitches, a fastball with a lot of movement and a curveball that looks more like a motionless changeup. Once hitters realize that Mercado's strategy is to just blaze the ball past them, they're usually able to start spraying them all over the outfield. If Mercado brings himself down to an ERA of 4.50, I'll be relatively happy, but at this point, I'm just praying he doesn't single-handedly cost us too many wins.

Marino Fuentes - This odd waiver pickup was a mild surprise, attaining a 4.70 ERA last season. However, we are paying him $2.7 mil this year, which is way too much for production of that low caliber. Unless he suddenly learns how to pitch like a star, I don't expect us to resign him after this year, but with one of the most celebrated changeups in the majors, I guess we could get lucky and have him figure things out this season. My prediction is an ERA barely below 5.

Ben Wilson - When Ben Wilson was drafted in season 1 by Mexico City (way back when they were known as the Chihuahuas) he was undoubtedly tapped as a future starter. Taken in round 1 with a supplemental pick, scouts raved about his curveball, his excellent control, and his virtually nonexistant injury risk. Well to be fair, he has never gone on the DL, but that is almost a bad thing-- he tortured us last year with a 6.19 ERA, allowing opponents to hit .327 off of him and slug .525. Boiled down, even the league's worst hitters turn into Jamie May when Wilson's on the mound. Call it confidence problems (he was a glorified mopup man last year), call it age (he's only 26 this season), call it heightened expectations. But whatever you call it, at least give it credit for what it is: suckiness, and suckiness that may be what ends up dooming this team. He only took 2 losses this year, but that's because he only came in when we were up or down by a ton of runs. The fact that he actually managed to get 2 losses while barely pitching in any pressure situations is mind-boggling, and it shows that there's little we can do with Wilson that won't kill this team. Alas, he will likely at least start the year on the big league roster this year.

Jeffrey Rivera - My prediction is that Rivera will be in the pen this year. While spring training doesn't tell much, Rivera has strung together a couple bad starts that have brought his ST ERA up to an even 6, showing he may not be quite ready to start against ML competition. He may be used in low pressure bullpen situations this year to build up his confidence, though, and might even spot start in the event of injuries or fatigue. I already commented on Rivera in part one, so I'll leave my analysis at this and hope he helps our cause out of the bullpen.

Don Wang - The more I think about it, the more I've got this inkling that Wang, a rotation stud from last year, will wind up in the bullpen. It was bound to happen eventually as his arm began to feel the ravages of age, though I'd rather see him start 32 games than come in as a reliever in 50. Nevertheless, he would be a great weapon to us as a long reliever, keeping the rest of the bullpen rested and allowing us to hang onto leads if need be. I also discussed Wang in part 1, so I won't do it much further, only saying that if Wang winds up in the bullpen, I hope he's used in high pressure situations to alleviate our need to use guys like Ben Wilson.

The verdict? The bullpen will hopefully be better this year, but with a couple bad eggs and a couple old guys, it's tough to tell whether our 'pen will help us or hurt us this season. Toss in the fact that the bullpen will be used often (since we'll be employing at least a couple starters with low stamina) and the quality of the bullpen could be a critical factor in deciding our fate this season. I'd like to believe that our improved starting pitching and offense will carry us into the postseason, and yet I've got a sinking feeling that in the end, ourbullpen will somehow do us in...

Anyway, that's it for the season preview. Keep it here for an outlook on the division (and on our chances at a playoff appearance) as well as news, musings, and updates during the season. I hope you're all looking forward to the start of the regular season as I am. GO SNOW PIRATES!!!